Post-construction boom, labour market normalisation, material costs and where the opportunities are in 2025.
The construction boom of 2020–2023 drove exceptional demand for joinery across Australia. That cycle has normalised significantly. New housing starts have declined from peak levels, and the residential renovation segment — which many joinery businesses pivoted to during the boom — remains steady but more competitive as more businesses compete for the same volume.
The chronic skilled trades shortage of 2021–2023 has eased somewhat, with immigration of experienced cabinetmakers from the UK, South Africa and South-East Asia filling some of the gap. Wages have remained elevated. Finding quality staff remains difficult in most markets, but less acute than at the peak.
Board and panel prices spiked sharply in 2022 and have partially corrected. Imported hardware (Blum, Hettich) remains elevated in AUD terms relative to pre-2020 pricing, reflecting both supplier cost increases and the AUD exchange rate against EUR. Most workshops are now carrying these elevated material costs in their quotes — those that haven't updated their material rates are absorbing the difference.
Commercial and institutional joinery — education, healthcare, aged care — has held stronger than residential. Workshops that built commercial relationships during the residential boom, or that pivoted toward commercial fit-out, are in the strongest position in 2025. Custom residential at the high end remains healthy. Volume builder work has compressed margins across the industry.
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